From Baku to Belem: The road to COP 30

The city of Belem in Northern Brazil, the gateway to the Amazon River will host the next COP conference in November and see over 50,000 delegates attending proceedings. The choice of venue has been controversial in most years with Baku, which hosted COP 29 criticised over the involvement of petrostates such asAzerbaijan in tackling climate change.

Belem is a city high in poverty, crime and pollution on the edge of the Amazon and is a markedly different choice from previous destination resorts such as Bali, Cancun, Sharm El-Sheik and Dubai. The city treats only 2% of its sewage putting severe stress on the city’s waterways whilst most of its 2.5 million inhabitants live in slums; a very stark difference to previous venues.

The sheer number of delegates has led to sky-rocketing prices for accommodation which is in very short supply, forcing organisers to bring in cruise ships to cover the overspill, adding to the already onerous logistical and environmental challenges for city officials.

Environment vs development

The conference will provide a real-world sustainability challenge on how governments can ensure environmental protection while allowing economic development. The decision to carve out an 8-mile, four lane highway called “Liberty Avenue” in a protected rainforest has been met with fierce criticism from environmentalists, local communities and church leaders.

The project, originally planned over a decade ago had been shelved over its environmental impact, but resurrected once the city was designated as a venue for COP 30. The highway construction is at the heart of over 30 infrastructure projects which the state government of Para has initiated focusing on tourism and urban development.

One of the largest projects is “City Park” which is being built by mining behemoth Vale, responsible for the country’s two most devastating environmental disasters in 2015 and 2019 when waste tailings dams collapsed, contaminating hundreds of miles of waterways.

Belem is an example of the challenges developing countries face with high rates of population movement to urban from rural areas – over 90% of Brazil’s 200 million plus population now resides in urban areas. The environment versus development trade off will only get more challenging for governments in both developing and developed countries.

COP 30: Solution led agenda

The agenda for COP 30 has been labelled as solutions focused with core pillars including – Energy, Industry & Transport; Forests, Oceans & Biodiversity; Agriculture & Food Systems; Cities, Infrastructure & Water; Human and Social Development; and Cross-Cutting Issues.

The hosting of COP 30 in the Amazon is a clear invitation to the world to confront climate change in a location where its impacts and most importantly solutions, are most visible. President Lula has outlined his commitment to restore Brazil’s environmental leadership and to halt the deforestation of the Amazon by 2030.

The choice of a seasoned career climate negotiator as COP President, Ambassador André Aranha Corrêa do Lago, augurs well, as he has a long history in sustainable development going back to the Earth Summit in Rio in 1992.

Again, a markedly different choice to the leadership in Baku, which was led by the Minister of Energy and oil executives. The leadership team in Belem has an opportunity to move COP through the next phase and deliver on practical solutions that can alleviate inequality and tackle climate change at the ground level. The focus on communities and climate should be at the heart of COP 30.

A shifting geopolitical landscape

The COP president faces a difficult geopolitical landscape both at home and abroad. In the former, he has some tailwinds with the Lula administration focused on preserving the Amazon versus the previous Bolsonaro administration which championed economic development of the Amazon. However, President Lula still wants to expand oil exploration complicating his image as a global flag bearer for climate change.

The geopolitical tailwinds are coming from the US which has turned sharply under the Trump administration, by withdrawing from the Paris accord at the beginning of his second term. In addition, the US has exited a fund which was set up to compensate developing countries for losses and damages due to climate change.

It has also pulled out of the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETP) which was launched at COP 26 in Glasgow, to help coal dependent developing nations transition to renewable energy sources.

The US remains a critical player in COP 30 negotiations as not only the largest economy, but also as one of the biggest carbon emitters, and more importantly a country that has a key role to play in providing solutions via technological innovation.

The US “intransigence” may provide the platform for other countries to step up and take a lead in developing the frameworks and solutions that are needed to tackle climate change, with many looking to China and India to take the lead.

Progress since Paris: A decade on

The conference in Belem marks a critical halfway point to 2030, when nations are obliged to meet their climate pledges made under the Paris Agreement a decade ago. The deadline to submit updated national climate plans (NDCs) is this year and it remains to be seen which countries will take the lead and which will be laggards.

This COP may become a watershed moment and it remains to be seen whether it will be a line in the sand that marks the next stage in the fight on climate change. Critics of the conference will point out that after 30 iterations, we are no closer to forming a cogent strategy to tackle the climate crisis, with little in the way of material adaptation plans emerging.

The question of whether we need an annual event has been raised with suggestions it should move to an Olympic four-year cycle to measure if any progress has been made in the intermediate period. In short, the world has its eyes very much fixed on Belem with the hope that Lula and his leadership can deliver a meaningful outcome, building on the optimism of COP 21 and avoiding further drift.