COP at 30: Soul-searching at a critical juncture

I remember my 30th birthday. Some friends and I dressed as fighter pilots and embarked on a Top Gun-themed excursion around our local hostelries. The next morning, I wondered: was I getting a bit old for this? By 30, my grandfather had a mortgage, a career in telecoms, and two kids in school. I had been playing ‘Goose’ down the pub. Where was my life going?

This question comes to us all at 30: are we where we thought we would be? As COP30 begins, the 30th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, it’s worth asking the same of this global process. This month, delegates descend on Belém, Brazil, for two weeks of negotiation. It’s the first time COP returns to Brazil since the seminal 1992 Earth Summit, and the mood is mixed.

See more: PA Future coverage of COP30 so far

Instinctively, it feels as though progress has been slow over the past 30 years. Perhaps that’s unfair. Some environmental challenges, like the ozone layer, were resolved more quickly through multilateral action. But those problems were simpler and the solutions more immediately cost-effective. Climate change is different: it’s more complex, the answers harder to find, and those most affected often have the least power to drive change.

Still, COP has delivered the Paris Agreement, achieved by consensus at COP21, against all odds and after several failures. Ten years on from Paris, it is reasonable to conclude that without this consensus, we would certainly be facing a warmer world, with fewer and weaker climate solutions. Advances in climate solutions such as renewable energy and electric vehicles have also been driven by falling costs and economic competitiveness, but the Paris Agreement provided a crucial framework for global action.

And yet, much remains to be done. Those of us whose day jobs revolve around climate change and sustainability may be too critical of progress. Perhaps 30 years is impressive when measured against the scale of the challenge, a multi-generational issue of immense operational, economic, and political complexity.

But as I did at 30, COP must use this milestone to look in the mirror. This year, we hope to see more countries submit their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the mechanism by which each party translates the goals of Paris into firm national commitments. The Paris Agreement expects countries to increase their ambition over time, and the latest set of NDCs, including clear 2035 commitments, is due. Yet, by the Bonn Climate Conference earlier in 2025, only 24 of 195 parties had submitted revised NDCs. What matters is the level of collective commitment; when all promises are added up, what level of warming will the world see?

According to Climate Action Tracker, current NDCs put us on track for 2.6–2.7°C of warming by 2100. The fear is that recent ESG backlash and political shifts, such as Trump’s return, may have stalled progress further.

What should we not expect this November? In short, leadership from the big emitters. This is the first COP since Trump’s second term began, during which the US withdrew from the Paris Agreement. While the move isn’t formal until January 2026, the US delegation has been decimated by cuts and culture war purges. That leaves all eyes on China. China has quietly led its own energy transition and is now the world’s biggest investor in clean energy. Yet, its updated target at UN Climate Week left many underwhelmed: a pledge to cut net greenhouse gas emissions by 7–10% by 2035 from peak levels, far short of the 30% cut needed for a 2°C pathway. It’s worth noting, however, that China has a history of setting conservative targets and then exceeding them, which offers a glimmer of hope.

At 30, COP is less about seismic shifts and more about the persistent, hard work of implementing ideas. Perhaps, amid geopolitical instability, a more sensible and practical climate action is emerging, one in which subsets of the 195 parties make local and regional commitments that drive meaningful progress.

See also: 10 years after the Paris agreement, Europe remains a global leader

Crucially, COP’s journey is now inseparable from the wider crisis of nature loss. Climate change and nature degradation are deeply intertwined: deforestation, soil erosion, and biodiversity loss both drive and exacerbate climate impacts. Without healthy ecosystems, our ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change is severely compromised. This year, there is growing recognition that climate solutions must go hand-in-hand with nature-positive action. Greenbank and Rathbones have been at the forefront of this agenda, engaging with companies and policymakers to advocate for integrated approaches and submitting evidence to consultations on nature-related financial disclosures. Their work highlights the urgent need for frameworks that address both climate and nature, ensuring that investments and policies do not solve one crisis while worsening another.

Finance, too, remains key. Scaling up climate finance as the US steps back is a priority for the EU delegation. At COP29 in Baku, a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) for climate finance was established. The Baku to Belém Roadmap, a joint initiative by the COP29 and COP30 Presidencies, aims to mobilise at least $ 1.3trn annually by 2035 to support climate action in developing countries. Increasingly, these funds must also support nature restoration and protection, not just emissions reduction.

COPs are not a cure-all, but they remain vital for aligning nations on ambition, solutions, and the finance to turn commitments into action. We all grow wiser by 30 and begin to see the wood for the trees. Perhaps this year, an honest assessment of COP’s journey will yield clarity in an ever-confusing world.