Countries Likely to Miss Dubai Renewables Pledge
China dominates on wind deployment but other countries are not on track to meet the 2030 goal, says Ember.
The goal of tripling global wind power capacity by 2030 – agreed at Dubai last year – is within reach, but governments must urgently ramp up their ambitions, according to a new report by energy think tank Ember.
That means reforming lengthy permitting processes, putting more emphasis on onshore as well as offshore wind, and mobilising private capital.
Ember argued that countries must also cease relying so heavily on China, which was responsible for well over half of new wind capacity last year and is on track to smash its own renewables targets.
“Governments are lacking ambition on wind, and especially onshore wind,” said Katye Altieri, Electricity Analyst at Ember. “Amidst the hype of solar, wind is not getting enough attention, even though it provides cheap electricity and complements solar.”
At the COP28 climate conference in Dubai last year, 133 countries signed the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge, which aims to triple renewable energy capacity to at least 11,000 gigawatts (GW) by 2030.
Signatories included major economies like the US, the EU, Japan, Brazil and the UK – but not China, India or Russia.
Reaching 11,000GW
Ember analysed the wind targets and policies of 70 countries plus the EU, which together account for 99% of global wind capacity. It found they were collectively well short of tripling global renewable capacity by 2030.
In order to meet the overall renewables target of 11,000GW, wind capacity needs to increase from 901 GW in 2022 to 2,742 GW six years from now – at which point the clean technology would account for nearly one fifth of the world’s electricity capacity.
Solar, which is enjoying more robust uptake than wind, will account for about half of the 11,000 GW, Ember said. But the think thank cautioned against relying too heavily on solar to meet the 2030 tripling target, saying the intermittent nature of each energy source means they should be deployed in tandem.
“[W]ind and solar work well together to provide electricity throughout the day, with wind peaking in the morning and evening and solar at midday, as well as seasonally with wind peaking in winter and solar in summer,” the report stated.
On current trajectories, wind will only reach 2,157 GW by 2030 – more than double the 2022 figure but 585 GW short of the target. China is set to contribute around half of that.
To breach the gap, the rest of the world must step up. The US and India, in particular, have large gaps between forecast installations and what is needed to meet their current 2030 targets, Ember said.
China vs the world
Ironically, given it did not sign the 2030 pledge in Dubai, China is by far the biggest contributor to new wind capacity. Although the world’s biggest carbon emitter does not officially aim to triple capacity, estimates suggest it will soar past its target of 800 GW around 2027 and triple capacity by the end of the decade.
Wind installations have boomed in China since 2020, and in 2023, the country accounted for an astonishing 66% of global onshore additions, and 64% of global offshore additions. It also added five times more wind capacity than the G7 countries combined that year.
For the rest of the world, the picture is quite different. Only six of the 51 countries with forecast data and targets are currently on track to meet or exceed their wind targets. Gaps between target and reality are biggest in the US and India, while European nations also falling well short. Meanwhile, Brazil and Turkey are set to exceed their targets.
“Wind energy must be at the heart of the energy transition – every gigawatt installed is another step towards a confident green world,” said Ben Backwell, CEO of the Global Wind Energy Council. “Targets play a key role in setting out a direction of travel, but the only thing that truly fights climate change, delivers clean industry, and provides secure energy is genuine action that [acts] on those targets.”
EU renewables overtake fossil fuels
In a separate report published on July 30, Ember had some better news. In the first half of 2024, it found wind and solar overtook fossil fuels as Europe’s main source of electricity generation for the first time.
Solar generation grew by 20%, while wind generation rose by 9.5% compared to the first six months of 2023.
When hydropower was included, renewable energy supplied 50% of the bloc’s energy in the six months to June 30 – up from 44% in the same period last year. Include nuclear, and low-carbon electricity represented 73% of the EU’s power. Coal power, meanwhile, fell by 24% year-on-year – and gas was down 14%.
“We are witnessing an historic shift and it is happening rapidly,” said Chris Rosslowe, Senior Energy and Climate Data Analyst at Ember. “If member states can keep up momentum on wind and solar deployment, then freedom from fossil power reliance will truly start to come into view.”
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