Pre-COP30: Key themes for Belem

The 30^th United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP30) is likely to deliver incremental rather than transformative progress, as most countries remain misaligned with the Paris Agreement and net-zero pathways.  

Clearer national climate plans with investment pathways: 

COP30 is expected to centre on the next cycle of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2035. These standards are at the heart of the Paris Agreement and outline each country’s climate commitment. However, most countries remain misaligned with the Paris Agreement and net-zero pathways, suggesting this year’s summit will deliver incremental rather than transformative progress. Whilst governments are expected to update their targets and announce sectoral pledges, uneven ambition—particularly from major emitters such as the US, China and Brazil—combined with domestic economic and political constraints means few are likely to present investment-ready transition plans. 

See also: Financing nature: Why COP30 must deliver on the climate-nature nexus

Recent updates to 2035 NDC commitments reveal modest directional ambition rather than structural change. The US and Brazil remain off track relative to net-zero consistent trajectories, and China’s recently announced 2035 NDC target of 7% to 10% reduction relative to 2023 peak emissions illustrates this limited ambition, as China is also expected to be off track by 2035¹. By contrast, the UK’s 2035 NDC target is on track, reflecting stronger policy clarity and implementation credibility. 

Climate finance and mobilising capital for EMs:  

EMs will likely dominate the finance debate in Belem. A 2023 IEA report estimates that EMs will require $2.2–2.8trn annually by the early 2030s for clean energy alone; actual flows currently total around $770bn per year. The Belem finance initiative, also known as the Baku to Belem Roadmap, aims to mobilise at least $1.3trn annually by 2035 to support climate action in developing countries. In the past, scaling capital into EMs has proven persistently challenging. Several high-profile initiatives, such as the roughly $8.5bn South Africa Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), once hailed as a model, has struggled with slow disbursement and limited private participation due to the weak balance sheet, heavy debt exposure and grid constraints of Eskom – South Africa’s electric utility company. Other failed COP-led JETP initiatives to mobilise capital for EMs include the Indonesia JETP valued at $20bn and the Vietnam JETP valued at $15bn. Success of the Baku to Belem Roadmap hinges on delivering credible first-loss guarantees backed by multilaterals such as The World Bank, Asian Development Bank or African Development Bank to provide investors with protection against borrower default or payment risk, effectively transferring part of the credit risk to a higher-rated institution.  

See also: COP30 president outlines conference objectives in first letter to the Parties

Adaptation and resilience:  

At COP30, adaptation and resilience are expected to move from a secondary issue to a central pillar of negotiation. The global temperature is already roughly 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels (as of 2024⁾, whilst the frequency and severity of climate-related disasters are escalating. These disasters have caused a cumulative $2trn in economic losses since 2010, and costs are projected to reach $1.4trn annually by 2030 if the trend persists. Delegates at COP30 will focus on scaling both finance and governance for resilience, particularly in vulnerable economies where climate impacts threaten fiscal stability. For financial markets, adaptation is no longer an abstract concept but an increasingly material driver of asset pricing. Adaptation finance is therefore expected to emerge as a focal discussion point at COP30, increasingly recognised as a distinct sub-asset class. Investment opportunities for both debt and equity are set to expand across resilient infrastructure, water systems, agricultural technology and insurance-linked instruments—all of which will be critical to protecting long-term asset performance. 

Conference expectations: 

COP30 is unlikely to deliver full investment-ready national transition plans, as most countries remain misaligned with the Paris Agreement and net-zero targets. Uneven ambition – especially from major emitters such as the US and China – as well as economic and geopolitical constraints are elevating policy uncertainty and transition risk. Climate finance for emerging markets (EMs) remains the single largest gap to meeting Paris Agreement goals and any significant movement in resolving this gap at the Belem conference could influence growth prospects. Adaptation and resilience will likely move to the centre of global policy, influencing sovereign creditworthiness and creating new investable sectors in infrastructure and technology. 

See also: From Baku to Belem: The road to COP 30